The modified log5 went to work again. I was expecting to back up the truck on anti-Kentucky which was trading as high as +120 to not win a few weeks prior, but as the brackets were announced, they were at -140 on that prop. I had them fair at -130, so the line was right in the middle of where I was. 538 was a little less high on them (41%) than I was (43.5%) and I suspect its due to our differences in weighting proximity to sites. So, no anti-Kentucky play available.
Unfortunately, due to being a rushed two things happened:
- No shiny visuals, like last year. Then I proceeded to brag on Twitter that all of my plays had basically cleared by the conclusion of the first week. This lead @statsbylopez to threaten an unfollow if I didn’t post my props after getting them in!
- I didn’t get in nearly as many plays as I would’ve liked to. The props at Westgate came out a little later than usual and I had to catch a flight to London for work, so I was extremely rushed. First world problems, eh.
Here were the plays and results. The edges were all 15-30%, except for the straight game, but the results were almost laughably my way.
I promise to provide the ggplot2s next year!